Point Topic predicts that by the end of 2030, the number of global fixed broadband users will exceed 1.595 billion, and from mid-2022 to the end of 2030, global fixed broadband users will increase by 18%.
ICC News Point Topic recently updated its forecast for fixed broadband subscriptions in 96 countries and regions in 2030. These forecasts are based on its broadband subscriber statistics for the second quarter of 2022. Point Topic predicts that by the end of 2030, there will be more than 1.595 billion fixed broadband users worldwide. This is a slight increase from the 1.55 billion people predicted by Point Topic in its forecast released in October 2021. From mid-2022 to the end of 2030, global fixed-broadband subscriptions will grow by 18%.
Figure 1. Forecast of total global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030.
Source: Point Topic.
The highest growth in fixed broadband subscriptions (45.5%) will come from emerging markets, where broadband services have been launched earlier than in younger markets, but there is still plenty of room for growth. Some countries in emerging markets have been expanding fixed broadband infrastructure, especially fiber optics. Demand for ultra-fast broadband has been growing at a healthy rate across these generally large and growing populations and economies, Indonesia and the Philippines being two of the representatives.
The young market has the second-highest growth rate at 16%. Fixed broadband usage here is growing rapidly, so their growth rate will slow. Growth curves are the steepest in younger markets, where countries like China have invested heavily in broadband infrastructure over the past decade. Growth in mature markets will be the slowest at 8%. Population growth is slowing because fixed broadband penetration is already high.
Source: Point Topic.
Figure 2. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by market type. Source: Point Topic.
On a regional basis, the developed and mature economies of Western Europe and North America will experience the slowest growth, at 7% and 9%, respectively. On the other hand, fixed broadband usage in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America will grow significantly, at 53% and 33%, respectively.
Table 2. Predicted growth in fixed broadband subscribers by region. Source: Point Topic.
In absolute terms, South and East Asia will have 730 million fixed-broadband subscriptions by the end of 2030, by far the largest number in the region. China will remain the largest market in the region, and growth in China will slow considerably, given the already high penetration of fixed broadband.
Western Europe will be second among global regions, with 180 million fixed broadband subscriptions expected by 2030. Despite the highest expected growth rates, the Middle East and Africa will remain the smallest fixed broadband market with just 80 million subscribers.
Figure 3. Forecast of global fixed broadband subscriber lines to 2030 by region. Source: Point Topic.
Point Topic’s forecast for global fixed broadband adoption in 2030 is 2.7% higher than previous forecasts. This reflects higher-than-expected growth in broadband usage and targetable audiences in some countries. Higher growth forecasts in markets such as Saudi Arabia (+36%), Qatar (+34%), and Malaysia (+16%) boost Point Topic’s forecast for global fixed broadband subscriptions for these years. These are emerging or young countries with relatively low market saturation, with much room to expand fixed broadband coverage and usage. These types of markets also dominate the fastest-growing charts.
Table 3. Fastest growing broadband markets. Source: Point Topic.
At the same time, given that China’s fixed broadband market is already highly saturated (the milestone of 500 million subscribers has been reached in the second quarter of 2021), Point Topic forecasts a small growth (4.6%) in China between 2022 and 2030. In addition, China’s 5G users have exceeded 1 billion. In the US’s second-largest fixed broadband market (mature market), Point Topic forecasts growth of 9.4% between now and 2030.
Other countries and area with the lowest forecast growth rates include markets with high fixed broadband penetration, such as France, Hong Kong, and Malta, and markets where socioeconomic conditions are less favorable for broadband investment and adoption, such as Venezuela, despite low penetration.
Table 4. Lowest growth broadband markets. Source: Point Topic.
The overall picture suggests that by the end of 2030, countries in the Global South will generally experience higher growth in fixed broadband usage.
Figure 4. The growth forecast by country (% growth 2022-2030). Source: Point Topic.
Likewise, countries predominantly from the global south will see the largest increases in fixed broadband penetration among their populations, with the UAE topping the list at a rate of 16%.
Figure 5. Top ten countries by predicted improvement in fixed broadband penetration among the population, 2022 – 2030. Source: Point Topic.